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Nate Silver on The Signal and the Noise

Nate Silver on The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail but Some Don’t

Sunday, May 19, 2013 - 1:00 pm


Nate Silver is a 35-year-old statistician and writer who gained recognition by developing a system for forecasting the performance of baseball players.

In 2007, Mr. Silver began to publish analyses related to the U.S. presidential election. The accuracy of his predictions—in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and a range of congressional and senatorial races—won him followers, fans, and commendation.

He was named one of “The World’s 100 Most Influential People” by Time magazine, and his blog,, was licensed for publication by The New York Times. Mr. Silver's book, The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail – But Some Don't, discusses baseball, elections, climate change, the financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. Published in September 2012, it was named by as one of the best books of 2012.

At Spertus, Mr. Silver spoke about the impact of the Jewish vote in American politics and the art and science of predicting the future. His book was for sale at this event and he signed books after the program.

Nate Silver was introduced by Steve Edwards, Deputy Director of Programming for University of Chicago's newly created, non-partisan Institute of Politics, founded by former White House Senior Advisor David Axelrod. Previously, Mr. Edwards worked as a journalist covering politics and public policy. For nearly 14 years he could be found at WBEZ, Chicago's NPR member station, where he hosted the acclaimed daily shows The Afternoon Shift and Eight Forty-Eight.

Spertus Prime

Nate Silver's appearance was part of Spertus Prime, a series of dynamic, thought-provoking speakers known for their forward-thinking leadership.

Made possible with the support of the Harvey L. Miller Family Foundation and other generous donors.

Read Mark Caro's Chicago Tribune interview with Nate Silver, where they talk about the challenges of predicting success in Hollywood. MORE>

Couldn't make it to the event but want to purchase a copy of The Signal and the Noise and have it signed by Nate Silver? Call the Spertus Shop at 888.322.1740 to arrange. (Would make a great Father's Day gift!)